0:00 Intro 0:15 Pricing 3:36 Demand 4:45 Elon 5:40 AI Comply with me on Twitter @teslaeconomist …
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0:00 Intro 0:15 Pricing 3:36 Demand 4:45 Elon 5:40 AI Comply with me on Twitter @teslaeconomist …
source
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Copyright © 2022 Car Fix Guru.
Car Fix Guru is not responsible for the content of external sites.
My Cybertruck will be ready Summer of 2025 I hope to have a non Beta FSD on delivery.
I'm currently at 20% of my portfolio in leaps / options. It really feels like too little at the moment. Hopefully we get Burry's famous market crash and we can all transition to all leaps for the sickest 1-2 year return in a lifetime 🤤
I wish FSD gave audio explanations for some of its actions.
You are right. LEAPS are what to get now, but at the least time frame being Jan 2024 IMHO. Today 7/27/22 was a comeback without any news, except macro. And it goes up 5%. It's going to be fun.
Inspirational! Thanks.
I'm a Tesla investor and I follow a lot of FSD channels, and i'm confident to say it sucks for now and for the next six months. The car can't take you from point A to B without a major problem. Have any street blocked for some reasons or unprotected turns and it's game over for FSD (difficult lanes situation too). To be honest it has little to no value right now. And progress are a bit stagnating. I'm not sure if it will bring value in a whole next year to come…
Anyone who thinks Elon Musk is “bored”, is a moron.
You discuss the market still being dubious about FSD when Elon eventually says it is complete and safer that an average human driver, and that perhaps validation from NHTSA or some other source would be needed for market valuation to respond. Then at 2:51, you state ". . . when FSD is approved. Elon is highly confident it will be in the next 6 months."
That is a patently UNTRUE statement. Elon is not highly confident FSD will be "approved" by any government when he says it is ready. You should not be substituting words which he did not use. That constitutes you creating fake news.
Words matter. I know that you know this. You must be much more judicious in your word choice in order to maintain not only your credibility with the audience, but more importantly, your personal integrity.
Stock split, Upgrade to Investment grade, 4680, Giga Ramping, FSD, gargantuan Delta between E/P and stock price…are all catalysts for way, way higher share price!!!Analysts will….again, be blown away!!
….yes forgot: AI-Day also big catalyst for share price!!!
I think this is true. For example, my current version of FSD Beta doesn't slow down or stop for stop signs that are obstructed. I think Tesla has temporarily removed the map memory of stop signs to help help identify the problems with vision only.
Examining Elon's recent public statements, I believe by FSD being "complete", he just means having the ability to not rely on any map data – IE, not a statement as to failure/error rate:
Jun 4: "10.13 smooths out intersection control, especially long lefts, and starts to handle roads with no map data at all. Last point is a big deal. Within a few months, FSD should be able to drive to a GPS point with zero map data. "
Apr 23: "FSD is best in Bay Area, given engineering mostly lives there, but rest of country will soon be at that level."
Mar 29: "FSD Beta should be available in Europe for LHD this summer, RHD a few months later. These dates depend on regulatory approval."
Mar 16: "They have no idea how hard FSD is. Only path to success imo is hardcore real-world AI software with dedicated NN inference acceleration ASICs in car, multibillion dollar NN training supercluster and 10+ billion miles of vehicle data. Good luck."
Jan 28: "Tesla will support FSD licensing by other manufacturers"
Jan 28: "Given how hard insanely FSD is, I think it may take 5 years or more before any company besides Tesla solves it."
Jan 7: "Tesla FSD price rising to $12k on Jan 17. FSD price will rise as we get closer to FSD production code release."
How much of fsd software is usefull for tsla bot? Perhaps ai day will suprice everyone. Should be a lot easier to make a bot do simple everyday work than fsd. Thats a few trill to ad, in few days. Just saying 🙄
I'm a FSD beta driver and from my experience I think Elons when Elon says FSD will be complete by the end of the year he means FSD will be good enough for robotaxi. Robotaxi is different than full level 5. There are many things you don't need for robotaxi. You don't need to be able to park, you don't need to find your way into a gate. You don't need all your maps perfect. You can go around intersections that are still giving you trouble. You don't even need to be able to go everywhere. Robotaxi can be geofenced within large areas that make if far more useful than Waymo, but still have some limitations.
The more I think about the things that need to be done for a level 5 type full FSD the more I realize that is still a ways ahead but the Robotaxis will help gather the data needed for that. The major thing is getting the maps almost perfect. Tesla can get the data, but they don't seem to be working on that quite yet.
This is going to case some disagreement about how well Tesla is doing with FSD. Elon will probably say it's ready but it will still make mistakes that some people will claim make it unsafe. However missing your turn and going down a block, or not quite doing the correct thing in some situation, but causes no harm will still be safe. Safe is the first thing needed, perfect will still take some time.
You make a good point about FSD intentionally being faulty in some way to get better intervention data
Fsd will be ready by and it will never get approved though.
your worst video yet, FSD is far from being ready if you beta testing it you know this , theres no "secret magic" version (your smart, you know this). And the 4680 cells seem to be a big disappointment, they probably should have just stuck with 21700 (but we can give them time to prove its a valid form factor)… Tesla is doing great but it's not for the reasons you're mentioning
when did Elon say all these things regarding FSD and A.I ?
You make the mistake of taking what Elon says as the Gospel. Elon doesn't lie, but he is over-optimistic and consistently wrong on timelines.
Look at FSD Beta vids. It's not even close to driving as well as a human. Nowhere near it. And there are dozens of basic things it can't do. FSD will not reach Elons goal this year and if the current trend persists, it won't happen next year either. You can bet that next year Elon will again say FSD better than a human this year. He will say it every year. And you simply think it will happen.
4680 production was supposed to reach 100 GWh production this year. Then it was talked back to run rate by YE. They won't even reach it by YE 2023. I think they will do EXCEPTIONALLY well if they can produce 20 GWh next year w a run rate of 40 GWh by YE. The 4680 factory in Berlin won't even be completed until early next year. Tesla hasn't even figured out the dry cathode process – the dry process is only being used for anode production. And the anode doesn't even contain any silicone (IMO for safety reasons which is SMART but a step back from 2170 or 18650 even).
4680 IMO won't really be a force until later in 2024.
Not that any of this matters over that timeframe. Tesla can still be a $3000 stock by 2024 based on current profit growth trajectory. The auto business is tremendously undervalued.
I believe Tesla has their Dojo computer working- and this is speeding FSD development by 1000x or more! It is no longer being slowed by the speed of human lablers.
I just realized fsd is easier when all cars have it. No need to worry about human drivers doing something stupid bc they didn't see you.
Tesla without Elon, it’s not the Tesla I like
Pump away Fanboy, $3,000? FSD will never happen and what is released will bring nothing but law suits. No FSD, means no robo taxi. Tesla sales might peak 4 to 5million units annually, but they'll settle back to 2 million per year, with a stock value of $300 maybe less.
It currently drives like the average really old man with no hearing and amnesia 😉
But yeah I think you might be right about that, they probably have better shadow mode versions of FSD running .
Full Self Driving would only work if all other cars use it as well.
FSD cannot predict other drivers actions and as such it's dangerous.
Upgrade to Investment grade is key at this point – Elon time means at least 12 months
XPENG claims their self-driving is 3X better than Tesla FSD…do you guys agree??
Am i the only one that dares to say that Elon will be wrong? Unfortunately he will.
I so much hope 🙏🏻 for Teslas success since my retirement depends on it and hearing that it might be achieved in 2023 is music to my ears 📈
Nowhere near ready.
FSD 10 years away………………at least!
Elon time frames are about as accurate as the 2020 US elections result!!!!!!
I love this #Tesla Content
The problem with FSD is drivers. (Other drivers especially). IMHO And ya gotta have vehicle to vehicle communications somehow. IMHO
If ev tax credit approved Tesla may reduce car prices by 3k
To me the proof that fsd is for real is when another major automaker decides to license it.
Aside from Tesla fanbois, should anyone BELIEVE Musk, just because he keeps making clearly non-trillion claims.
Re being able to be a practical general robo-taxi solution at L4 for, say, the continental US — the odds are CLEARLY super low for 2022 or even 2023, given the truly incremental progress for automated vehicles by virtually ALL competitors.
The way things are progressing real world, re a wide variety of regular and rational/balanced FSD Beta Youtube testers at each version, 2025 for lots of Tesla robo-taxis would be a gift. I'm just hoping for 2028 to 2030 re Tesla earning significant revenue and earnings from robo-taxis at L4.
Re "solved", which means L5 globally, we could be talking 2040.
AV is HARD. Look how GM's cruise is losing massive amounts of money.
The problem is not drivers complaining about minor things, IMO. Different human cabbies have different driving styles. As long as they never crash and reasonably obey the traffic laws, that's good enough. The problem with Tesla FSD Beta is it still needs MASSIVE numbers of human interventions when it does sudden stupid or dangerous things, or gets confused and blocks traffic and becomes a hazard etc.
Not just occasionally. A lot, on some drives. Not just for very complex things. For things as simple as curvy roads, making turns, handling lanes, etc. etc.
Wishful thinking isn't reality.
Buy the car because of what it is right now, not what pundits hope it might one day become 15 years from today! Tesla can’t fix phantom braking issues and refuse to officially acknowledge how lethal it is! So the whole idea that their car that cannot function safely even with all automated ‘driver assistance aids’ disabled, but that it can drive about unassisted, is a lie! I own a Tesla and refuse to use any safety functions. I disable them all every time I get into my model 3! Even then, the flawed radar/camera software causes the car to slam its brakes on for no reason, swerve to avoid nothing and sounds loud alarms for nothing.
Buy the car as it is, not as it should be one day, maybe.
I have no doubt that it is much further along than I think it is. 😜
i am glad they price fsd separately from the car. there is no way i would want strangers in my car when I'm not there! so no income from rob taxi for me
Do you really believe this nonsense? What evidence have you seen of a Full Self Driving system from Tesla?
FSD Beta still drives in the middle of the street if the street doesn't have a painted center line, which is the case all over my small town. It's idiotic.